The three main political parties all agree on the need to reduce the deficit, and argue that it is fairer to make savings in the working age welfare budget, rather than make spending cuts in other departments.
The Conservative Party has proposed a further £12bn of welfare spending cuts, without spelling out where these savings would come from.
Labour are committed to the welfare cap, limiting welfare spending over the five years of the parliament and the Liberal Democrats also propose savings, albeit more modest savings than the Conservatives.
They have found consensus in cuts to welfare spending, but how the next government chooses to make these cuts will affect people’s pockets as beneficiaries, and their employment prospects, by changing the financial returns from work.
How Universal Credit Impacts on Pockets and Prospects
Our recent review of Universal Credit focused on the impact UC had on reducing poverty by looking at the impact on ‘pockets’ and ‘prospects’. Overall, we found that Universal Credit will increase the money in people’s pockets, and improve their employment prospects.
Reductions in welfare spending will have the opposite effect on people’s pockets and prospects.
A large proportion of in-work households, typically low to middle income earners, are beneficiaries of the welfare system. The government can choose to reduce the amount of support people receive when out of work, or they can choose to lower in-work support faster, as earnings increase.
An example of each of these can be found in each of the manifestos.
- Out of work support increases are to be frozen or limited, hitting the pockets of people on low incomes.
- The work allowance, the amount that a household can earn before benefits are withdrawn, has been frozen under both the current system and Universal Credit, lowering the real financial returns from moving into work.
- The withdrawal rate of tax credits and Universal Credit could be increased, so benefits fall faster as earnings increase, households would face a higher effective tax rate and keep less of their earnings from work.
Benefit cuts hitting out-of-work households are often described as hitting the pockets of ‘shirkers’, particular when increases for disabled people are protected – these changes poll well with the electorate.
However, changes can also hit the employment prospects of some 3.8m in-work families, and reduce the incentive to enter work for those who are unemployed.
Benefit cuts that hit ‘prospects’, as well as ‘pockets’ would undo much of the improvement to work incentives that Universal Credit is being brought in to to deliver.
The Three Root Causes of Rising Welfare Spending
The base requirement for keeping welfare spending manageable is a growing economy, and it is credit to employers and employees that employment has remained high throughout this parliament. However, even with a growing economyeach political party knows that without tackling the root causes of rising welfare spending, any cuts they make to the welfare budget will only be temporary – the bill will continue to rise. Perhaps the most depressing aspect of the welfare debate is that the main drivers of rising welfare spending are well known:
- Demography: Pension spending is rising because of a growing number of pensioners, despite increases in the state pension age and because spending on pensioner benefits (including the triple-lock on the state pension) is rising.
- In-work support: Tax credits, introduced to help meet the higher living costs faced by larger families and improve incentives to enter work now see £20bn paid to 3.1m in-work families as living costs have continued to outpace wages; in addition, over 1m housing benefit claims are paid to households in work.
- Housing: Housing benefit has increased dramatically from £15bn in 2000 to £24bn today as a result of rising rents caused by a lack of new homes. With increases now capped, housing benefit is beginning to lose its relationship with local rents in some areas.
Each of the main parties have made a commitment to maintain the triple-lock on pension, so savings in working age welfare would need to be even higher than if the pain was shared more evenly. The need for higher in-work support is driven by the rising cost of living, including high housing costs.
However, while all of the parties talk about accelerating housebuilding there is little concrete or convincing detail as to how this would be achieved. More recently, the Conservatives have also promised not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, which ties their hands on the alternatives to welfare cuts.
The Impending Welfare Bombshell
Earlier on in the election campaign, Grant Schapps, speaking for the Conservatives, took a hammering on Newsnight from Evan Davis over the basis of their ‘Labour tax bombshell’ figure of £3,000.
The Conservative party calculated this figure based on a number of assumptions that the Institute for Fiscal Studies would describe as ‘unconventional’ at best.
Their own methodology, applied across their £12bn of welfare savings concentrated on working age households, would mean a ‘welfare bombshell’ of £7,500 over the course of the next parliament for each family in receipt of benefits or tax credits, a figure that equates to 10 per cent of the working age welfare budget.
Given that working age welfare is already cut to the bone, as shown in the table below, the challenge in finding the required level of savings is a real challenge.
Welfare Savings Announced In This Parliament
Local Authority | LEP | Population | Total Loss | Loss per Capita |
---|---|---|---|---|
Adur | Coast to Capital | 63,176 | £276,599 | £4.38 |
Allerdale | Cumbria | 96,471 | £3,950,671 | £40.95 |
Amber Valley | D2N2 | 123,942 | £1,992,484 | £16.08 |
Arun | Coast to Capital | 154,414 | £676,059 | £4.38 |
Ashfield | D2N2 | 122,508 | £1,969,431 | £16.08 |
Ashford | South East | 123,285 | £1,460,991 | £11.85 |
Aylesbury Vale | SEMLEP | 184,560 | £1,150,088 | £6.23 |
Babergh | New Anglia | 88,845 | £762,542 | £8.58 |
Barking and Dagenham | North East London | 198,294 | £6,880,802 | £34.70 |
Barnet | North West London | 374,915 | £13,009,551 | £34.70 |
Barnsley | Leeds City Region | 237,843 | £2,740,702 | £11.52 |
Barrow-in-Furness | Cumbria | 67,648 | £2,770,314 | £40.95 |
Basildon | South East | 180,521 | £2,139,267 | £11.85 |
Basingstoke and Deane | Enterprise M3 | 172,870 | £875,610 | £5.07 |
Bassetlaw | Sheffield City Region | 114,143 | £1,268,874 | £11.12 |
Bath and North East Somerset | West of England | 182,021 | £2,017,080 | £11.08 |
Bedford | SEMLEP | 163,924 | £1,021,495 | £6.23 |
Bexley | South London | 239,865 | £8,323,316 | £34.70 |
Birmingham | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 1,101,360 | £61,187,191 | £55.56 |
Blaby | Leicester and Leicestershire | 95,851 | £2,827,814 | £29.50 |
Blackburn with Darwen | Lancashire | 146,743 | £5,145,161 | £35.06 |
Blackpool | Lancashire | 140,501 | £4,926,302 | £35.06 |
Blaenau Gwent | West Wales and the Valleys | 69,674 | £7,073,832 | £101.53 |
Bolsover | Sheffield City Region | 77,155 | £857,696 | £11.12 |
Bolton | Greater Manchester | 280,439 | £11,059,900 | £39.44 |
Boston | Greater Lincolnshire | 66,458 | £965,752 | £14.53 |
Bournemouth | Dorset | 191,390 | £4,161,355 | £21.74 |
Bracknell Forest | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 118,025 | £686,734 | £5.82 |
Bradford | Leeds City Region | 528,155 | £6,086,013 | £11.52 |
Braintree | South East | 149,985 | £1,777,399 | £11.85 |
Breckland | New Anglia | 133,986 | £1,149,980 | £8.58 |
Brent | North West London | 320,762 | £11,130,441 | £34.70 |
Brentwood | South East | 75,645 | £896,432 | £11.85 |
Bridgend | West Wales and the Valleys | 141,214 | £14,337,115 | £101.53 |
Brighton and Hove | Coast to Capital | 281,076 | £1,230,613 | £4.38 |
Bristol, City of | West of England | 442,474 | £4,903,309 | £11.08 |
Broadland | New Anglia | 125,961 | £1,081,103 | £8.58 |
Bromley | South London | 321,278 | £11,148,347 | £34.70 |
Bromsgrove | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 95,485 | £5,304,768 | £55.56 |
Broxbourne | Hertfordshire | 95,748 | £1,258,335 | £13.14 |
Broxtowe | D2N2 | 111,780 | £1,796,968 | £16.08 |
Burnley | Lancashire | 87,291 | £3,060,632 | £35.06 |
Bury | Greater Manchester | 187,474 | £7,393,564 | £39.44 |
Caerphilly | West Wales and the Valleys | 179,941 | £18,268,974 | £101.53 |
Calderdale | Leeds City Region | 207,376 | £2,389,626 | £11.52 |
Cambridge | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 128,515 | £1,260,838 | £9.81 |
Camden | Central London | 234,846 | £8,149,156 | £34.70 |
Cannock Chase | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 98,549 | £5,474,991 | £55.56 |
Canterbury | South East | 157,649 | £1,868,222 | £11.85 |
Cardiff | East Wales | 354,294 | £14,860,949 | £41.95 |
Carlisle | Cumbria | 108,022 | £4,423,707 | £40.95 |
Carmarthenshire | West Wales and the Valleys | 184,898 | £18,772,246 | £101.53 |
Castle Point | South East | 88,011 | £1,042,976 | £11.85 |
Central Bedfordshire | SEMLEP | 269,076 | £1,676,751 | £6.23 |
Ceredigion | West Wales and the Valleys | 75,425 | £7,657,717 | £101.53 |
Charnwood | Leicester and Leicestershire | 173,545 | £5,119,957 | £29.50 |
Chelmsford | South East | 171,633 | £2,033,939 | £11.85 |
Cheltenham | Gloucestershire | 116,495 | £2,404,965 | £20.64 |
Cherwell | Oxfordshire | 144,494 | £769,661 | £5.33 |
Cheshire East | Cheshire and Warrington | 374,179 | £11,887,586 | £31.77 |
Cheshire West and Chester | Cheshire and Warrington | 332,210 | £10,554,240 | £31.77 |
Chesterfield | Sheffield City Region | 104,288 | £1,159,320 | £11.12 |
Chichester | Coast to Capital | 115,527 | £505,803 | £4.38 |
Chiltern | Buckinghamshire Thames Valley | 93,972 | £528,183 | £5.62 |
Chorley | Lancashire | 111,607 | £3,913,209 | £35.06 |
Christchurch | Dorset | 48,895 | £1,063,114 | £21.74 |
City of London | Central London | 8,072 | £280,098 | £34.70 |
Colchester | South East | 180,420 | £2,138,070 | £11.85 |
Conwy | West Wales and the Valleys | 116,287 | £11,806,337 | £101.53 |
Copeland | Cumbria | 69,832 | £2,859,753 | £40.95 |
Corby | SEMLEP | 65,434 | £407,753 | £6.23 |
Cornwall,Isles of Scilly | Cornwall | 135,266 | £8,832,978 | £65.30 |
Cotswold | Gloucestershire | 84,637 | £1,747,277 | £20.64 |
County Durham | North East | 517,773 | £13,435,894 | £25.95 |
Coventry | Coventry and Warwickshire | 337,428 | £4,883,286 | £14.47 |
Craven | Leeds City Region | 55,696 | £641,794 | £11.52 |
Crawley | Coast to Capital | 109,883 | £481,092 | £4.38 |
Croydon | Coast to Capital | 376,040 | £1,646,387 | £4.38 |
Dacorum | Hertfordshire | 149,741 | £1,967,920 | £13.14 |
Darlington | TEES Valley | 105,367 | £3,415,180 | £32.41 |
Dartford | South East | 102,234 | £1,211,525 | £11.85 |
Daventry | SEMLEP | 79,036 | £492,514 | £6.23 |
Denbighshire | West Wales and the Valleys | 94,791 | £9,623,900 | £101.53 |
Derby | D2N2 | 252,463 | £4,058,579 | £16.08 |
Derbyshire Dales | Sheffield City Region | 71,281 | £792,397 | £11.12 |
Doncaster | Sheffield City Region | 304,185 | £3,381,481 | £11.12 |
Dover | South East | 113,066 | £1,339,890 | £11.85 |
Dudley | Black Country | 315,799 | £11,458,457 | £36.28 |
Ealing | North West London | 342,118 | £11,871,495 | £34.70 |
East Cambridgeshire | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 86,685 | £850,452 | £9.81 |
East Devon | Heart of South West | 136,374 | £3,535,160 | £25.92 |
East Dorset | Dorset | 88,186 | £1,917,411 | £21.74 |
East Hampshire | Solent | 117,483 | £442,128 | £3.76 |
East Hertfordshire | Hertfordshire | 143,021 | £1,879,604 | £13.14 |
East Lindsey | Greater Lincolnshire | 137,623 | £1,999,905 | £14.53 |
East Northamptonshire | Northamptonshire | 88,872 | £3,608,068 | £40.60 |
East Riding of Yorkshire | York, North Yorkshire & East Riding | 337,115 | £6,208,932 | £18.42 |
East Staffordshire | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 115,663 | £6,425,777 | £55.56 |
Eastbourne | South East | 101,547 | £1,203,384 | £11.85 |
Eastleigh | Solent | 128,877 | £485,008 | £3.76 |
Eden | Cumbria | 52,630 | £2,155,299 | £40.95 |
Elmbridge | Enterprise M3 | 132,769 | £672,493 | £5.07 |
Enfield | North East London | 324,574 | £11,262,718 | £34.70 |
Epping Forest | South East | 128,777 | £1,526,074 | £11.85 |
Epsom and Ewell | Coast to Capital | 78,318 | £342,894 | £4.38 |
Erewash | D2N2 | 114,048 | £1,833,428 | £16.08 |
Exeter | Heart of South West | 124,328 | £3,222,897 | £25.92 |
Fareham | Solent | 114,331 | £430,266 | £3.76 |
Fenland | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 97,732 | £958,832 | £9.81 |
Flintshire | East Wales | 153,804 | £6,451,347 | £41.95 |
Forest Heath | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 62,812 | £616,238 | £9.81 |
Forest of Dean | Gloucestershire | 83,674 | £1,727,396 | £20.64 |
Fylde | Lancashire | 77,042 | £2,701,277 | £35.06 |
Gateshead | North East | 200,505 | £5,202,983 | £25.95 |
Gedling | D2N2 | 115,638 | £1,858,989 | £16.08 |
Gloucester | Gloucestershire | 125,649 | £2,593,943 | £20.64 |
Gosport | Solent | 84,287 | £317,201 | £3.76 |
Gravesham | South East | 105,261 | £1,247,397 | £11.85 |
Great Yarmouth | New Anglia | 98,172 | £842,594 | £8.58 |
Greenwich | North East London | 268,678 | £9,323,127 | £34.70 |
Guildford | Enterprise M3 | 142,958 | £724,102 | £5.07 |
Gwynedd | West Wales and the Valleys | 122,273 | £12,414,081 | £101.53 |
Hackney | North East London | 263,150 | £9,131,305 | £34.70 |
Halton | Liverpool City Region | 126,354 | £1,862,654 | £14.74 |
Hambleton | York, North Yorkshire & East Riding | 89,828 | £1,654,438 | £18.42 |
Hammersmith and Fulham | North West London | 178,365 | £6,189,266 | £34.70 |
Harborough | Leicester and Leicestershire | 88,008 | £2,596,429 | £29.50 |
Haringey | North East London | 267,541 | £9,283,673 | £34.70 |
Harlow | South East | 84,564 | £1,002,127 | £11.85 |
Harrogate | Leeds City Region | 157,267 | £1,812,212 | £11.52 |
Harrow | North West London | 246,011 | £8,536,582 | £34.70 |
Hart | Enterprise M3 | 93,325 | £472,704 | £5.07 |
Hartlepool | TEES Valley | 92,590 | £3,001,049 | £32.41 |
Hastings | South East | 91,093 | £1,079,499 | £11.85 |
Havant | Solent | 122,210 | £459,918 | £3.76 |
Havering | North East London | 245,974 | £8,535,298 | £34.70 |
Herefordshire, County of | The Marches | 187,160 | £1,759,597 | £9.40 |
Hertsmere | Hertfordshire | 102,427 | £1,346,112 | £13.14 |
High Peak | D2N2 | 91,364 | £1,468,762 | £16.08 |
Hillingdon | North West London | 292,690 | £10,156,343 | £34.70 |
Hinckley and Bosworth | Leicester and Leicestershire | 107,722 | £3,178,035 | £29.50 |
Horsham | Coast to Capital | 134,158 | £587,374 | £4.38 |
Hounslow | North West London | 265,568 | £9,215,210 | £34.70 |
Huntingdonshire | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 173,605 | £1,703,209 | £9.81 |
Hyndburn | Lancashire | 80,208 | £2,812,285 | £35.06 |
Ipswich | New Anglia | 134,966 | £1,158,391 | £8.58 |
Isle of Anglesey | West Wales and the Valleys | 70,169 | £7,124,088 | £101.53 |
Isle of Wight | Solent | 139,105 | £523,499 | £3.76 |
Islington | Central London | 221,030 | £7,669,741 | £34.70 |
Kensington and Chelsea | Central London | 156,190 | £5,419,793 | £34.70 |
Kettering | SEMLEP | 96,945 | £604,114 | £6.23 |
King's Lynn and West Norfolk | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 150,026 | £1,471,879 | £9.81 |
Kingston upon Hull, City of | Humber | 257,710 | £13,111,111 | £50.88 |
Kingston upon Thames | South London | 169,958 | £5,897,543 | £34.70 |
Kirklees | Leeds City Region | 431,020 | £4,966,711 | £11.52 |
Knowsley | Liverpool City Region | 146,407 | £2,158,266 | £14.74 |
Lambeth | Central London | 318,216 | £11,042,095 | £34.70 |
Lancaster | Lancashire | 141,277 | £4,953,510 | £35.06 |
Leeds | Leeds City Region | 766,399 | £8,831,337 | £11.52 |
Leicester | Leicester and Leicestershire | 337,653 | £9,961,502 | £29.50 |
Lewes | South East | 100,229 | £1,187,765 | £11.85 |
Lewisham | Central London | 291,933 | £10,130,075 | £34.70 |
Lichfield | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 102,093 | £5,671,882 | £55.56 |
Lincoln | Greater Lincolnshire | 96,202 | £1,397,985 | £14.53 |
Liverpool | Liverpool City Region | 473,073 | £6,973,829 | £14.74 |
Luton | SEMLEP | 210,962 | £1,314,613 | £6.23 |
Maidstone | South East | 161,819 | £1,917,638 | £11.85 |
Maldon | South East | 62,767 | £743,821 | £11.85 |
Malvern Hills | Worcestershire | 75,911 | £1,730,092 | £22.79 |
Manchester | Greater Manchester | 520,215 | £20,516,140 | £39.44 |
Mansfield | D2N2 | 105,893 | £1,702,329 | £16.08 |
Medway | South East | 274,015 | £3,247,219 | £11.85 |
Melton | Leicester and Leicestershire | 50,969 | £1,503,697 | £29.50 |
Mendip | Heart of South West | 110,844 | £2,873,357 | £25.92 |
Merthyr Tydfil | West Wales and the Valleys | 59,065 | £5,996,726 | £101.53 |
Merton | South London | 203,515 | £7,061,971 | £34.70 |
Mid Devon | Heart of South West | 79,198 | £2,053,013 | £25.92 |
Mid Suffolk | New Anglia | 99,121 | £850,739 | £8.58 |
Mid Sussex | Coast to Capital | 144,377 | £632,115 | £4.38 |
Middlesbrough | TEES Valley | 139,119 | £4,509,158 | £32.41 |
Milton Keynes | SEMLEP | 259,245 | £1,615,489 | £6.23 |
Mole Valley | Coast to Capital | 86,234 | £377,552 | £4.38 |
Monmouthshire | East Wales | 92,336 | £3,873,056 | £41.95 |
Neath Port Talbot | West Wales and the Valleys | 140,490 | £14,263,609 | £101.53 |
New Forest | Solent | 178,907 | £673,288 | £3.76 |
Newark and Sherwood | D2N2 | 117,758 | £1,893,070 | £16.08 |
Newcastle upon Tyne | North East | 289,835 | £7,521,042 | £25.95 |
Newcastle-under-Lyme | Stoke and Staffordshire | 126,052 | £6,309,029 | £50.05 |
Newham | North East London | 324,322 | £11,253,973 | £34.70 |
Newport | East Wales | 146,841 | £6,159,282 | £41.95 |
North Devon | Heart of South West | 94,059 | £2,438,248 | £25.92 |
North Dorset | Dorset | 70,043 | £1,522,931 | £21.74 |
North East Derbyshire | Sheffield City Region | 99,352 | £1,104,449 | £11.12 |
North East Lincolnshire | Greater Lincolnshire | 159,804 | £2,322,234 | £14.53 |
North Hertfordshire | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 131,046 | £1,285,670 | £9.81 |
North Kesteven | Greater Lincolnshire | 111,046 | £1,613,694 | £14.53 |
North Lincolnshire | Greater Lincolnshire | 169,247 | £2,459,458 | £14.53 |
North Norfolk | New Anglia | 102,867 | £882,891 | £8.58 |
North Somerset | West of England | 208,154 | £2,306,674 | £11.08 |
North Tyneside | North East | 202,744 | £5,261,083 | £25.95 |
North Warwickshire | Coventry and Warwickshire | 62,468 | £904,042 | £14.47 |
North West Leicestershire | Leicester and Leicestershire | 95,882 | £2,828,729 | £29.50 |
Northampton | SEMLEP | 219,495 | £1,367,786 | £6.23 |
Northumberland | North East | 315,987 | £8,199,670 | £25.95 |
Norwich | New Anglia | 137,472 | £1,179,900 | £8.58 |
Nottingham | D2N2 | 314,268 | £5,052,153 | £16.08 |
Nuneaton and Bedworth | Coventry and Warwickshire | 126,174 | £1,826,001 | £14.47 |
Oadby and Wigston | Leicester and Leicestershire | 55,928 | £1,649,998 | £29.50 |
Oldham | Greater Manchester | 228,765 | £9,021,991 | £39.44 |
Oxford | Oxfordshire | 157,997 | £841,586 | £5.33 |
Pembrokeshire | West Wales and the Valleys | 123,666 | £12,555,509 | £101.53 |
Pendle | Lancashire | 89,840 | £3,150,006 | £35.06 |
Peterborough | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 190,461 | £1,868,580 | £9.81 |
Plymouth | Heart of South West | 261,546 | £6,779,935 | £25.92 |
Poole | Dorset | 150,109 | £3,263,790 | £21.74 |
Portsmouth | Solent | 209,085 | £786,858 | £3.76 |
Powys | East Wales | 132,675 | £5,565,085 | £41.95 |
Preston | Lancashire | 140,452 | £4,924,584 | £35.06 |
Purbeck | Dorset | 45,679 | £993,189 | £21.74 |
Reading | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 160,825 | £935,768 | £5.82 |
Redbridge | North East London | 293,055 | £10,169,009 | £34.70 |
Redcar and Cleveland | TEES Valley | 135,042 | £4,377,014 | £32.41 |
Redditch | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 84,471 | £4,692,874 | £55.56 |
Reigate and Banstead | Coast to Capital | 143,094 | £626,497 | £4.38 |
Rhondda Cynon Taf | West Wales and the Valleys | 236,888 | £24,050,664 | £101.53 |
Ribble Valley | Lancashire | 58,091 | £2,036,810 | £35.06 |
Richmond upon Thames | South London | 193,585 | £6,717,400 | £34.70 |
Richmondshire | York, North Yorkshire & East Riding | 52,729 | £971,155 | £18.42 |
Rochdale | Greater Manchester | 212,962 | £8,398,755 | £39.44 |
Rochford | South East | 84,776 | £1,004,639 | £11.85 |
Rossendale | Lancashire | 69,168 | £2,425,196 | £35.06 |
Rother | South East | 92,130 | £1,091,788 | £11.85 |
Rotherham | Sheffield City Region | 260,070 | £2,891,075 | £11.12 |
Rugby | Coventry and Warwickshire | 102,500 | £1,483,388 | £14.47 |
Runnymede | Enterprise M3 | 84,584 | £428,430 | £5.07 |
Rushcliffe | D2N2 | 113,670 | £1,827,352 | £16.08 |
Rushmoor | Enterprise M3 | 95,296 | £482,687 | £5.07 |
Rutland | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 38,022 | £373,027 | £9.81 |
Ryedale | York, North Yorkshire & East Riding | 52,655 | £969,792 | £18.42 |
Salford | Greater Manchester | 242,040 | £9,545,528 | £39.44 |
Sandwell | Black Country | 316,719 | £11,491,838 | £36.28 |
Scarborough | York, North Yorkshire & East Riding | 108,006 | £1,989,238 | £18.42 |
Sedgemoor | Heart of South West | 119,057 | £3,086,259 | £25.92 |
Sefton | Liverpool City Region | 273,531 | £4,032,271 | £14.74 |
Selby | Leeds City Region | 85,355 | £983,559 | £11.52 |
Sevenoaks | South East | 117,811 | £1,396,121 | £11.85 |
Sheffield | Sheffield City Region | 563,749 | £6,266,931 | £11.12 |
Shepway | South East | 109,452 | £1,297,062 | £11.85 |
Shropshire | The Marches | 310,121 | £2,915,623 | £9.40 |
Slough | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 144,575 | £841,217 | £5.82 |
Solihull | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 209,890 | £11,660,655 | £55.56 |
South Bucks | West Wales and the Valleys | 68,512 | £6,955,857 | £101.53 |
South Cambridgeshire | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 153,281 | £1,503,813 | £9.81 |
South Derbyshire | D2N2 | 98,374 | £1,581,454 | £16.08 |
South Gloucestershire | West of England | 271,556 | £3,009,269 | £11.08 |
South Hams | Heart of South West | 84,108 | £2,180,292 | £25.92 |
South Holland | Greater Lincolnshire | 90,419 | £1,313,948 | £14.53 |
South Kesteven | Greater Lincolnshire | 137,981 | £2,005,108 | £14.53 |
South Lakeland | Cumbria | 103,271 | £4,229,144 | £40.95 |
South Norfolk | New Anglia | 129,226 | £1,109,126 | £8.58 |
South Northamptonshire | SEMLEP | 88,164 | £549,395 | £6.23 |
South Oxfordshire | Oxfordshire | 137,015 | £729,824 | £5.33 |
South Ribble | Lancashire | 109,077 | £3,824,501 | £35.06 |
South Somerset | Heart of South West | 164,569 | £4,266,046 | £25.92 |
South Staffordshire | Stoke and Staffordshire | 110,692 | £5,540,245 | £50.05 |
South Tyneside | North East | 148,740 | £3,859,712 | £25.95 |
Southampton | Solent | 245,290 | £923,109 | £3.76 |
Southend-on-Sea | South East | 177,931 | £2,108,574 | £11.85 |
Southwark | Central London | 302,538 | £10,498,069 | £34.70 |
Spelthorne | Enterprise M3 | 98,106 | £496,920 | £5.07 |
St Albans | Hertfordshire | 144,834 | £1,903,431 | £13.14 |
St Edmundsbury | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 112,073 | £1,099,529 | £9.81 |
St. Helens | Liverpool City Region | 177,188 | £2,612,026 | £14.74 |
Stafford | Stoke and Staffordshire | 132,241 | £6,618,794 | £50.05 |
Staffordshire Moorlands | Stoke and Staffordshire | 97,763 | £4,893,136 | £50.05 |
Stevenage | Hertfordshire | 85,997 | £1,130,186 | £13.14 |
Stockport | Greater Manchester | 286,755 | £11,308,989 | £39.44 |
Stockton-on-Tees | TEES Valley | 194,119 | £6,291,831 | £32.41 |
Stoke-on-Trent | Stoke and Staffordshire | 251,027 | £12,564,153 | £50.05 |
Stratford-on-Avon | Coventry and Warwickshire | 121,056 | £1,751,932 | £14.47 |
Stroud | Gloucestershire | 115,093 | £2,376,021 | £20.64 |
Suffolk Coastal | New Anglia | 124,776 | £1,070,932 | £8.58 |
Sunderland | North East | 276,889 | £7,185,101 | £25.95 |
Surrey Heath | Enterprise M3 | 87,533 | £443,367 | £5.07 |
Sutton | South London | 198,134 | £6,875,250 | £34.70 |
Swale | South East | 140,836 | £1,668,979 | £11.85 |
Swansea | West Wales and the Valleys | 241,297 | £24,498,299 | £101.53 |
Swindon | Swindon and Wiltshire | 215,799 | £5,412,262 | £25.08 |
Tameside | Greater Manchester | 220,771 | £8,706,725 | £39.44 |
Tamworth | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 77,112 | £4,284,037 | £55.56 |
Tandridge | Coast to Capital | 85,374 | £373,786 | £4.38 |
Taunton Deane | Heart of South West | 112,817 | £2,924,503 | £25.92 |
Teignbridge | Heart of South West | 127,360 | £3,301,494 | £25.92 |
Telford and Wrekin | The Marches | 169,440 | £1,593,001 | £9.40 |
Tendring | South East | 139,916 | £1,658,077 | £11.85 |
Test Valley | Solent | 119,332 | £449,087 | £3.76 |
Tewkesbury | Gloucestershire | 85,784 | £1,770,956 | £20.64 |
Thanet | South East | 138,410 | £1,640,230 | £11.85 |
Three Rivers | Hertfordshire | 90,423 | £1,188,353 | £13.14 |
Thurrock | South East | 163,270 | £1,934,833 | £11.85 |
Tonbridge and Malling | South East | 124,426 | £1,474,512 | £11.85 |
Torbay | Heart of South West | 132,984 | £3,447,282 | £25.92 |
Torfaen | West Wales and the Valleys | 91,609 | £9,300,840 | £101.53 |
Torridge | Heart of South West | 65,618 | £1,700,985 | £25.92 |
Tower Hamlets | North East London | 284,015 | £9,855,321 | £34.70 |
Trafford | Greater Manchester | 232,458 | £9,167,634 | £39.44 |
Tunbridge Wells | South East | 116,105 | £1,375,904 | £11.85 |
Uttlesford | Greater Cambridge/Peterborough | 84,042 | £824,522 | £9.81 |
Vale of Glamorgan | East Wales | 127,685 | £5,355,779 | £41.95 |
Vale of White Horse | Oxfordshire | 124,852 | £665,036 | £5.33 |
Wakefield | Leeds City Region | 331,379 | £3,818,533 | £11.52 |
Walsall | Black Country | 274,173 | £9,948,098 | £36.28 |
Waltham Forest | North East London | 268,020 | £9,300,294 | £34.70 |
Wandsworth | Central London | 312,145 | £10,831,432 | £34.70 |
Warrington | Cheshire and Warrington | 206,428 | £6,558,173 | £31.77 |
Warwick | Coventry and Warwickshire | 139,396 | £2,017,350 | £14.47 |
Watford | Hertfordshire | 95,505 | £1,255,142 | £13.14 |
Waveney | New Anglia | 115,919 | £994,914 | £8.58 |
Waverley | Enterprise M3 | 122,860 | £622,303 | £5.07 |
Wealden | South East | 154,767 | £1,834,069 | £11.85 |
Wellingborough | Northamptonshire | 76,446 | £3,103,592 | £40.60 |
Welwyn Hatfield | Hertfordshire | 116,024 | £1,524,806 | £13.14 |
West Berkshire | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 155,732 | £906,134 | £5.82 |
West Devon | Heart of South West | 54,260 | £1,406,557 | £25.92 |
West Dorset | Dorset | 100,474 | £2,184,586 | £21.74 |
West Lancashire | Lancashire | 111,940 | £3,924,885 | £35.06 |
West Lindsey | Greater Lincolnshire | 91,787 | £1,333,827 | £14.53 |
West Oxfordshire | Oxfordshire | 108,158 | £576,114 | £5.33 |
West Somerset | Heart of South West | 34,322 | £889,713 | £25.92 |
Westminster | Central London | 233,292 | £8,095,232 | £34.70 |
Weymouth and Portland | Dorset | 64,992 | £1,413,108 | £21.74 |
Wigan | Greater Manchester | 320,975 | £12,658,551 | £39.44 |
Wiltshire | Swindon and Wiltshire | 483,143 | £12,117,278 | £25.08 |
Winchester | Solent | 119,218 | £448,658 | £3.76 |
Windsor and Maidenhead | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 147,400 | £857,654 | £5.82 |
Wirral | Liverpool City Region | 320,914 | £4,730,769 | £14.74 |
Woking | Enterprise M3 | 99,426 | £503,606 | £5.07 |
Wokingham | Thames Valley and Berkshire | 159,097 | £925,713 | £5.82 |
Wolverhampton | Black Country | 252,987 | £9,179,385 | £36.28 |
Worcester | Worcestershire | 100,842 | £2,298,295 | £22.79 |
Worthing | Coast to Capital | 106,863 | £467,870 | £4.38 |
Wrexham | East Wales | 136,714 | £5,734,502 | £41.95 |
Wychavon | Worcestershire | 119,752 | £2,729,274 | £22.79 |
Wycombe | Buckinghamshire Thames Valley | 174,878 | £982,928 | £5.62 |
Wyre | Lancashire | 108,742 | £3,812,755 | £35.06 |
Wyre Forest | Greater Birmingham and Solihull | 98,960 | £5,497,825 | £55.56 |
York | Leeds City Region | 204,439 | £2,355,783 | £11.52 |
Grand | 56,995,412 |
I carried out a small piece of work to help identify further savings in 2014, when George Osborne first floated the idea of further cuts in welfare spending. As a best case scenario, I was able to identify savings of £9.8 billion, see the table below for the options.
Possible Future Welfare Savings
September 2019 | October 2019 | October 2021 |
---|---|---|
40% of £317 = £127 | 30% of £317 = £95 | 30% of £317 = £95 |
£127 multiplied by 12 months recovery period = £1,522 | £95 multiplied by 12 months recovery period = £1,141 | £95 multiplied by 16 months recovery period = £1,521 |
For a fuller explanation of the savings estimates above, please leave a comment or contact us.
Other suggestions based on analysis from the IFS includes:
- the already announced freeze on benefit rates, which would save about £1.5bn
- means testing child benefit which would save about £5bn
Other ideas involve further reductions in out of work benefit levels (child tax credit, housing benefit) or increasing the withdrawal rate of benefits, which would hit employment prospects the hardest, and undo the good intentions of Universal Credit.
The Importance of the Frontline Advisor
Talking about the billions of pounds that needs to be saved can distract people from having to consider the case by case support that the benefit system provides to millions of out of work and in-work households across the United Kingdom.
Our work with frontline advisors at local authorities, housing associations and employment service organisations highlights to us everyday the challenges faced at the sharp-end, by their residents and customers.
We work with the men and women who have to explain welfare policy and the changes from year to year to their customers, and make the welfare system work as best it can.
- Advisors in Oxford help their residents to take active steps toward independence, alongside the immediate support provided by discretionary housing payments.
- In Lewisham, advisors told us how surprised they were at the level of need faced by residents affected by the benefit cap, and how important their work was in helping them to take supported steps toward employment.
- Advisors at Serco and at Jobcentre Plus have told us about the challenges of working with a benefit system where the belief, all too often justified, is that work doesn’t pay and the importance of being able to carry out quick, simple and accurate better off in work calculation.
- We have worked with up to five different teams within one housing association, each of them asking for the same information from their residents over and over again, helplessly aware of how frustrating this is for them and their customers.
Frontline advisors need to be supported to explain changes in the welfare system, to direct their support where it will be most effective and to influence welfare policy with their experience of how it affects people, where cost-effective policy changes can be made, and how people can best be supported into work.
More Welfare Cuts Will Affect People Already In Poverty
Each political party wants to be the party of working people, and each party wants to make savings in the welfare budget. There is a common consensus (see the Daily Politics debate on welfare spending here) that work is the best route out of poverty, and this, in turn, would help reduce the benefit bill.
However, each political party needs to say where the welfare savings will come from, whether these will be from ‘pockets’ or ‘prospects’, and who will be affected.
Like us, they could learn some valuable lessons by speaking to the advisors on the frontline who deal with real people already affected by poverty, every day.