We recently hosted over 500 delegates on our webinar, ‘How Autumn’s Income Shocks Will Hit Low-Income Households’. A record-breaking level of interest shows the extent of concern across organisations, ranging from councils to those in the third-sector, as they prepare for a challenging series of months for their residents and customers. (View the webinar on-demand here if you missed it.)

Joined by our guest speaker Monica Kaur (Money and Pensions Service, MaPS), the webinar brought together findings from our groundbreaking project with Trust for London, insights from recent analysis and our knowledge of the economy and welfare policy. The pressures faced by thousands of families were at the forefront of our discussions as the Government commits to removing the support that has kept many out of poverty throughout the pandemic so far. 

A trio of challenges for low-income families

Many low-income families face the multi-dimensional challenge of rising costs, stunted incomes and rising debt/depleted savings.

Autumn's income shocks - Incomes falling

The end of the temporary £20/week uplift to Universal Credit started to affect households at a similar time to the end of furlough and its counterpart for the self-employed. Our analysis for the All Parliamentary Group on Poverty in January this year showed that an estimated 225,000 additional households (with 229,000 children) would be unable to meet essential costs such as housing, groceries and utilities, leaving a total of 683,000 households with 824,000 children in a cash shortfall.

Autumn's income shocks - Houseolds in cash shortfall

In contrast to the planned changes to temporary benefit measures and furlough, widespread increases to the cost of living were unexpected. However, for many families and front-line advisors, increased costs come as little surprise, a perception backed by recent research by the Resolution Foundation and the Nuffield Foundation.

The 12% increase to the energy price cap is of particular concern. The cap protects 11 million families paying for their gas and electricity under a default tariff, (also known as a variable tariff), and a further 4 million using pre-payment meters. Combined with wider supply-side uncertainty, it could also impact those on fixed-rate tariffs, as these come to an end and fewer equivalent alternatives are available. There is also higher demand as more middle-income households see the need to switch. The cap is expected to increase again on its next review in April 2022.

The backdrop to rising costs and falling incomes has been the experience around debt and savings that has affected many families on a low income. Evidence shows that, for those on the lowest incomes, savings have dropped while debt has increased

Effects of the removal of temporary support measures

A big factor behind the shock to incomes is the end of the £20/week uplift to the Universal Credit work allowance. This affects all Universal Credit claimants introduced in September, and starting to bite from the 6th of October. The removal of the uplift coincides with the end of two income replacement measures on 30 September, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, and the fifth Self-employment Income Support Scheme grant. 

The end of furlough is expected to result in an increase to the number of people out-of-work, as planned redundancies and company restructures take place. 

Furthermore, many existing benefit claimants will be affected by:

Options for people facing reduced means

The end of the UC uplift is a primary concern in our poll

Results from our poll showed a clear line of concern. Almost two-thirds of respondents expected the end of the uplift to have the most negative impact on customers. This is unsurprising given the wide-ranging impact of the measure. By removing the uplift, incomes will be directly affected, limiting the extent to which higher costs can be absorbed, while compounding other measures. Families forced to migrate to Universal Credit from legacy benefits could be worse off by a larger amount and those affected by the Minimum Income Floor will face a double whammy of assumed earnings and de-facto lower support. Our recent analysis showed that 47% of self-employed on UC and 29% of those affected by the two-child limit risked being in cash shortfall due to removing the uplift.

June webinar poll 1

For the many families facing new or mounting levels of debt, this will result in substantial pressure, with respondents anticipating rent and mortgage arrears to have the biggest impact. This is again unsurprising. Section 21 (‘no fault’) evictions have now returned to a 2-month notice period, the ban on evictions ended in May and the standard Breathing Space period lasts a maximum of 60 days. 

Advisors and local government are key to supporting those in greatest need

The complexity of challenges and scant centralised support puts ever-greater emphasis on local authorities and advice organisations to help low-income families navigate the welfare system. More than an estimated £15bn benefits go unclaimed each year. Universal Claimants cited the risk of overpayments/debt or lack of awareness as a key reason for not claiming Council Tax Support. In addition, we know from debt charities that many people drowning in debt are too anxious to seek help when they first fall into trouble, which can lead to a vicious cycle of debt. 

We’ve also heard anecdotal evidence that many struggling families are not aware of Discretionary Housing Payments, discounts such as reduced wifi tariffs and the Warm Homes Discount, in-kind transfers/vouchers such as Free School Meals* and Healthy Start vouchers. There’s much to be said for the value of a conversation with an expert with knowledge of the welfare system and the ability to signpost customers effectively. 

* Four London boroughs operate an extended FSM programme that covers all primary school pupils.

Available tools and supports 

Targeted support will be paramount for the recovery. The Government recently announced £500 million of funding to councils in England and devolved administrations via the Household Support Fund. Although welcome, this level of funding pales in comparison to the £2.2 billion of support that was made available by the Universal Credit uplift. (The value of CJRS and SEISS over was £6.9bn and £12.8 billion, respectively. Source: OBR EFO, p190.)

This in turn puts severe pressure on councils to target support to those most in need and engage in creative ways to maximise the incomes of their residents. Advice organisations will also play an important role by supporting current and prospective claimants as they navigate the welfare system.

Policy in Practice and MaPS have a range of tools available to support with this effort:

1. Low-Income Family Tracker (LIFT)
LIFT makes use of administrative benefits data owned by local authorities.

This is combined with our micro-simulation of the benefits system and policy knowledge to provide insight and help you target support at the household level. 

2. Benefit and Budgeting Calculator
The Benefit and Budgeting Calculator combines the, often complex, interactions of the legacy benefits system, Universal Credit and Council Tax Support to help organisations ranging from housing providers, utilities, councils and advice organisations. 

3. MaPS tools
MapS provides free financial guidance with the overarching aim of ensuring a minimum level of financial wellbeing for everybody. Tools include the redundancy pay calculator and mortgage calculators. Check out the UK Financial Wellbeing Strategy and how you can embed in your organisation.

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TitleDateStart TimeDurationRegister
How to identify and support Just About Managing households using data The government has said it wants to make life easier for the 'squeezed middle' or people who are just about managing. These are the families who are not rich and they are also not those on the lowest incomes. Despite most being in work, they are struggling to meet their cost of living and it is no wonder.

The cost of living hit a 30-year high in February with inflation running at 6.2% and outpacing wage growth. Electricity bills were up nearly 20% in the year to January 2022, and gas bills by 28%, with further rises expected. Private rental prices across the UK went up by 2% in the year to January, the highest rate for five years; in the East Midlands that figure was 3.6%.

We know that one in five UK adults (10.3 million people) have less than £100 in savings, one in ten have no savings at all and more than a quarter have less than £500. Many are one broken appliance away from slipping into debt.

Local authorities want to help families who are struggling now to avoid a crisis down the line yet they have little or no visibility over people who are not already claiming benefits. Now though, analysis of other datasets can be used to get a clearer picture of families who are just about managing.

Join this webinar to learn:

- Who is just about managing now but at risk in the future due to the rising cost of living
- Which datasets can be used to identify families in danger of debt
- How local authorities can target support to avert crisis
29/6/202210:30 BST1.3 hours
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